December 2023
From: Brian and Tobias
Subject: 2023 Year in Review
Dear readers,
What a 2023 it has been. First and foremost, thank you all for your engagement in this community, your kind words and feedback, and your thought partnership. One of the highlights of Tobias and my job is writing to you all as a sounding board for our musings and learnings, whether or not they’re all that unique or smart. So, above all else, thank you!
We wanted to close out the year with some thoughts on 2023, 2024, and the even more distant future. We’ve written a lot about AI this year, and it’s worth summarizing our thoughts.
We believe AI will utterly transform society over the next decade. What the internet did to our world over two decades will look insignificant compared to the depth, breadth, and speed of change that AI will herald. The fundamentals of human labor, health, and relations will be reimagined. Most change will be for the best. As with all technological revolutions, some will not. But AI will not become our overlords. Rather, it will become our superpower.
This future, though, is far away. 2024 will likely disappoint. “Wow” demos will continue to flop in real world contexts. Consumer apps will struggle to get adoption. And yet, AI will progress in several important ways. Today, virtually every corporation in America is working on AI initiatives, but they’re mostly stuck in a prototype phase. Moving into production requires two things: one, technical integrity, which includes things like speed, cost and security, and two, end-user value. If a small fraction of companies succeed on these two fronts, 2024 will be a successful year, even if it appears to be a dud. We’re looking for startups that help enterprises cross this chasm and get closer to productionalization.
Seeds are being planted for the 10-year future, too. We think that in a decade, AIs will be creating the best movies and art in the world, and discovering medical breakthroughs. This AI will require a different type of model, compute capacity, and unknown use cases for AI to move beyond knowledge worker productivity to truly revolutionary possibilities. We’re also looking for startups building the infrastructure to enable this future.
We couldn’t be more excited for the AI future, and we feel privileged to have a small role to play in it – even just as spectators, fans, and occasionally, a coach.
To end, check out this deck that Tobias and I put together. It details our reflections on 2023, our predictions on 2024, and what could be coming in the great beyond. As always, thoughts and feedback are highly encouraged.
Have a fantastic holiday and new year, and looking forward to seeing you all in 2024!
Brian & Tobias